Date: 14th Mar, 2025
Price trend of Long Grain Rice
Source: USDA
India
Production volume for 2024/25 is expected to reach 145.0 million tons, a 5.2% increase from the previous year, the highest on record.
Harvested area is expected to reach 50.0 million hectares, a 4.5% increase from the previous year, the highest on record.
Yield is also expected to reach 4.35 tons/hectare, a 0.7% increase from the previous year (4.32 tons/hectare), also the highest on record.
The government has lifted the export ban on broken rice to promote its shipments.
Thailand
Department of Foreign Trade (DFT) and Thai Rice Exporter Association (TREA) expect that export volume in 2025 will be around 7.5 million tons.
Rice production in Thailand is forecasted to increase by 0.5% year-on-year from 20 million tons in 2023-24 to 20.1 million in 2024-25. (Source: USDA)
Harvested area is expected to reach 10.7 million hectares, a 0.47% increase from the previous year (10.65 million hectares).
The government announced measures worth 1.89 billion baht to support farmers.
Vietnam
By the end of February, total rice exports reached 1.1 million tons, valued at $613 million. (Source: Vietnamnet)
Harvest information
- The peak harvest of Winter-Spring 2025 (WS25) is expected between mid-March and late April.
- Average productivity is forecasted to increase to 6.5 - 7.2 ton/ha compared to the same period last year (6.7 ton/ha). (Source: Agro Monitor)
Price trends
Overall, the export price of 5% broken rice hit to US$399 per ton last February, the lowest in nine years.
Fragrant rice: The price is not far from the bottom; it is forecasted to recover after harvesting time because of:
- Supply: the abundant supply
- Vietnam is at the peak of the WS25 harvest, ensuring abundant supply.
- The Indian government has officially announced that it will allow the export of 100% broken rice after the increase in rice reserves on Mar 09.
- Demand: Philippines and Indonesia are the largest importers of Vietnam.
- At the end of 2024, Indonesia’s national reserves and production are sufficient to meet domestic demand. Therefore, the country will significantly reduce its import volume.
- Until now, Philippines’s large demands haven’t appeared.
- Other external factors:
- Supplier is under the sale pressure for Autumn – Winter (AW24).
- Fragrant rice faces strong rice competitors from Thailand, Cambodia and India and they have a lot of options to choose: KDM, Jasmine, DT8, OM18,…
- The price is nearly equal to the cost of production.
- The government started to intervene by setting the floor price for rice.
- Despite the current oversupply, anticipated large demand and government intervention could make a gradual price increase post-harvest.
Japonica rice: The price is falling in line with fragrant rice; however, the decrease is not as dramatic as its fragrant rice due to the limited supply and strong demand. The price of Japonica is expected to increase significantly owing to:
- Supply: the shortage of supply
- China, one of the largest Japonica suppliers, plans not to release its inventory, leading to a supply shortage.
- Demand: It is expected to be equal to the previous year (approximately 350 thousand tons) or even higher
- Thailand has already purchased nearly half of the Japonica harvest volume of WS25 via land routes. It is rumored that Thailand will consume it domestically and export the rest to Japan.
- There is a considerable increase in Japonica consumption in Africa, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
- With the little supply and strong demand, the price after the harvest will rise considerably.
US (California)
Even though much demand is coming from Japan, the price is stable.
Currently, there are plenty of water in reservoir and another large crop is expected to be planted. (Planting will be started in May.)
Japan
Rice prices continue to soar in Japan and government announced it would release some of the emergency national stockpile on to the market to get distribution back to normal.
Even after that, rice price maintains high level. Current spot price is about US$5,000/mt for brown rice basis. In this situation, a lot of wholesalers, restaurants, retailers import Japonica rice from US, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
Kanematsu has top share of importing rice to Japan.
Myanmar
FY 2024-2025: Expected to export 2 million tons.
With the arrival of harvested stocks from the main season crop, prices may stabilize or decline slightly in Q2.
Government interventions and price regulations may prevent excessive price spikes.
Logistical challenges due to political instability could still disrupt supply chains.
Other news:
Alternative grains like wheat and maize are witnessing a rise in prices. As a result, consumers may increasingly turn to rice as a substitute.
A stronger USD provides significant support for rice exports.
Hereby is KANEMATSU price indication for your reference:
